Playing Hurricanes Over/Under

We’ve ran the polls, I’ve heard the feedback, and now it’s time to reveal the results. Over/under is a relatively simple concept to grasp. I attached a player to a stat-say, Sebastian Aho 39.5 goals-and asked you all to predict whether he would score 40 or more goals (over) or 39 or less goals (under). Now that the fanbase has provided their opinion, I’m here to break down the stats and provide my opinion.

Andrei Svechnikov celebrates with Nino Niederreiter (AP Photo/Karl B DeBlaker)

THE LINE: Brent Burns 44.5 assists

OVER: 37% UNDER: 63%

ROMO’S REASONING: In 2018-19, Burns had a stellar offensive year in which he tallied 67 assists. That year, the Sharks would go all the way to the Western Conference Final, eventually falling to the eventual Cup champions in the St. Louis Blues. The following year, Burns and the Sharks both fell off a cliff, with Burns’ assist total (33) falling to less than half of the previous year’s total en route to the Sharks missing the playoffs. After missing time in 2020-21, Burns moved in the right direction with 44 assists last year, putting him right under our line. He’s going to be quarterbacking the first power-play unit, where he’ll be playing with Aho and Teravainen instead of *checks notes* Nick Bonino. With a better supporting cast, I’ll bet on him having better offensive numbers this year.

THE VERDICT: Over

Is this the year Sebastian Aho hits 40 goals?

THE LINE: Sebastian Aho 39.5 goals

OVER: 33% UNDER: 67%

ROMO’S REASONING: Aho has come quite close to the 40-goal mark twice with 37 and 38-goal campaigns, with the former coming last season. However, last season 13 of those goals came on the power-play, which is somewhat of a stark increase considering Aho has never had more than 8 power-play goals in a year and because the Hurricanes power-play last season was a middling 22%. There weren’t huge improvements made on that front, as Brent Burns will likely have a similar or lesser impact than Tony DeAngelo did quarterbacking. Towards the end of the year, Max Pacioretty will also return, which could cut down Aho’s power-play scoring. With a high marker such as 40 goals, players have to be consistent throughout the entire year. I can see him getting close again, but I think he’ll be registering assists more often, seeing as his two linemates are ready to take the next step…

THE VERDICT: Under

THE LINE: Seth Jarvis 29.5 goals

OVER: 38% UNDER: 62%

ROMO’S REASONING: We talked about Aho’s goal-scoring ability, but his playmaking ability also registers at an elite level. Jarvis will benefit from playing alongside Aho, receiving first line minutes, and being a presence on the first power-play unit. His patient playstyle and soft hands mesh well with Aho, who often drives the pace off the rush. Jarvis’ career path mirrors Svechnikov’s to a degree-Svechnikov finished the 2020-21 season with 15 goals, albeit in a shortened season where he only played 55 games, and then finished last year with 30 in 78 games. Jarvis scored 17 goals in 68 games. Is 30 more of a ceiling than a floor? Maybe, but all the stars are aligned for a big progression in Jarvis’ career.

THE VERDICT: Over

THE LINE: Andrei Svechnikov 80.5 points

OVER: 67% UNDER: 33%

ROMO’S REASONING: Svechnikov has everything going for him that Jarvis has. Last year, he likely would’ve hit 70 points if not for missing four games (Svechnikov fell just short with 69). He’s just 22, he’s got lottery-pick pedigree, and he’s coming off his first 30-goal year. The skill is unquestionable, there’s a fiery sense of compete, and if the Hurricanes are truly going to reach the top of the mountain, they need #37 to solidify himself as a true NHL star.

THE VERDICT: Over

THE LINE: Carolina Hurricanes 2.5 playoff series wins

OVER: 44% UNDER: 56%

ROMO’S REASONING: Last article, I provided my opinion on the state of the Metro division, and I still maintain my reasoning that the Hurricanes are at the top of the pile. Now, the question shifts to wondering whether or not Carolina is the top squad in the East, and the Hurricanes have a roster that causes them no concern surrounding their defense. Goaltender Frederik Andersen is unquestionably in the league’s elite tier of goalies, and he benefits from one of the most defensively responsible rosters in the league.

If you look around at the top teams in the East, you’ll notice that Carolina will have to match up against offensive dynamos. The Rangers and Panthers will both have a legitimate chance at winning the conference, but the two best offensive teams in the division and arguably the entire NHL are Tampa Bay and Toronto. As of right now, Carolina doesn’t have a roster that can outscore the likes of Matthews, Marner, Stamkos, and Kucherov.

So, one of two things will end up happen, and they’ll probably happen at or near the trade deadline. Yes, the goalie carousel contributed to the downfall of the Canes last playoffs, but in the end, they couldn’t outscore the Rangers. They need to find more scoring than they had last season. Either young players like Jarvis, Martin Necas, and Svechnikov need to take the next step in the progression of their careers towards stardom-much like Filip Chityl and the Ranger’s “Kid Line”-or the Canes will have to move cap to get scoring. Pacioretty definitely helps, but the Canes are pursuing a high standard and one of those moves absolutely will become necessary for a Stanley Cup Final appearance. This could change over the course of the season, but as of right now, they’re not quite there yet.

THE VERDICT: Under

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