It’s always startling how quickly things can change in the NHL. A month ago, many analysts and fans believed the Toronto Maple Leafs shouldn’t buy at the trade deadline. The team had lost five of their last six games and were idling in mediocrity. Toronto was on track to barely make the playoffs and failed to show any signs that they could actually compete for a Stanley Cup. It didn’t seem worth it to trade away more draft picks and prospects for rentals that probably wouldn’t be good enough to push this team over the edge. The Leafs are already short on future assets, with just two picks in the first two draft rounds over the next three years. Was this the year Brad Treliving wanted to empty the cupboards for a Cup run?
Well, over the past month, Toronto has won ten of their last twelve games, with the team’s three best players leading the way. During this hot streak, Auston Matthews has 15 goals and 6 assists, Mitch Marner has been at his playmaking best with 18 assists, and William Nylander has pitched in 8 goals and 14 points. They haven’t been doing it alone, though. The new-look third line of Bobby McMann, John Tavares and Nick Robertson has been a revelation, and Pontus Holmberg continues to grow with each passing game. In addition, Timothy Liljegren, Jake McCabe and T.J. Brodie carried the Leafs blueline during Morgan Rielly’s five-game suspension, and each player looks to be playing their best hockey of the season. If Treliving wanted signs of life from his hockey team before deciding on a strategy leading up to the trade deadline, he’s gotten it. The Leafs are comfortably in a playoff spot now and continue to get healthier, pending the returns of Joseph Woll and Calle Jarnkrok.
I always found it hard to believe that Toronto shouldn’t be doing all they can to load up for a playoff run with their current roster. One of the most essential parts of winning a Stanley Cup is giving yourself as many opportunities as possible. The NHL playoffs can often be a crapshoot, and as the Florida Panthers showed as recently as last year, it doesn’t matter what seed you are as long as you get in. Toronto has looked uninspiring for most of the season, but they can turn it on at any point, and you never know if one big trade could be the difference. The Leafs are about as top-heavy of a team as can be in the NHL, and when you have four players as good as Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares, you will always be in and around a playoff spot. This year is the ultimate proof of that. Toronto’s starting goalie has a .882 save percentage, and the team’s defensive unit includes multiple players who began the season in the minor leagues. Yet, the boys in blue and white currently sit fifth in the Eastern Conference. In saying that, this team still has holes, and general manager Brad Treliving will have to get creative if he wants to improve the team.
Toronto’s biggest flaw right now is on the right side of their defence unit. At the moment, they have one right-handed shot in their top six, which is Timothy Liljegren. Lefties Jake McCabe and T.J. Brodie have been playing on their off-wing for most of the season, but it is clear, especially in Brodie’s case, that they are much better utilized when playing on their preferred side. Ideally, the Leafs’ three left-sided defensemen would be McCabe, Brodie and Morgan Rielly, but that would mean trading for two right-handed defensemen, which might not be possible now. However, Treliving must acquire at least one capable right defenseman if Toronto wants any chance of a deep playoff run.
Chris Tanev of the Calgary Flames has been the most popular name in trade rumours. The 34-year-old is tough, smart and stout defensively, but he will be expensive and has just one year remaining on his contract. Another possible target for the Leafs is Sean Walker of the Philadelphia Flyers. Walker has been quietly excellent for Philly this year in a top-four role, carrying a 51% xGF and pitching in 20 points through 57 games. The Flyers are surprisingly in a race for a playoff spot, which may alter their thinking when it comes to selling off assets, but Philly is still rebuilding and has made it clear that Walker is available for the right price. The last name Toronto is rumoured to have checked in on is Alexandre Carrier. The Nashville Predators’ defenseman shoots right and is strong at suppressing opponents’ offences. He would cost less than Walker or Tanev but also brings less of an overall game to the table.
Despite how good they have been recently, I’m also not completely sold on the Leafs’ current forward unit. I think an upgrade will be made through the middle of the ice. Max Domi, while talented offensively, has inefficiencies on his own end that hold him back from being a suitable second-line centre for a contending team. Combine that with John Tavares seeming better suited to a sheltered role at this point in his career, and there is a need for another centre in the Leafs lineup. Nic Dowd springs to mind as a responsible depth centre who can play against the opposition’s scoring lines. The Washington Capital makes over $1M a year and shouldn’t cost more than a mid-round pick. Another more exciting name is Boone Jenner. Jenner is the captain of the Columbus Blue Jackets and has 18 goals in 40 games this season. Even with the Blue Jackets performing as poorly as they have, Jenner has been phenomenal at even strength. He has the second-best xGF% on the team at 53.1% and has encouraging defensive impacts. Jenner’s AAV is $3.5M, and the Jackets will not trade him away cheaply. But if there is a dream acquisition for Toronto, it just might be him.
Regarding what Treliving has to offer these teams in trades, I don’t think he should be afraid to give up first-round picks or high-quality prospects. The only player in the Leafs system I would consider untouchable is 2023 first-round pick Easton Cowan. Other than that, there should not be hesitation if there is a chance to significantly improve the current Toronto Maple Leafs by trading away Fraser Minten or Topi Niemela. The recent emergence of McMann, Robertson, Holmberg and Knies, along with the fact that Matthews, Marner and Nylander are all 27 or younger, should halt any worries that the Leafs are going to struggle down the line if they trade away too much of their future. The time is now to win a Stanley Cup, not in five years. You have your three best players playing some of the best hockey of their careers. They deserve to get some support from their front office. Gear up, Leaf fans. It should be another exciting few weeks leading up to the trade deadline.
All stats courtesy of moneypuck.com, evolving-hockey.com, and Naturalstattrick.com
The Morning Skate 