The words ‘missed opportunity’ feel like they’ve come to define the Leafs over the last few years with this core, and game three against Boston should be described as such. Game-to-game momentum is a fickle thing in the playoffs insofar as it may not even exist, but Toronto had an incredible chance to build off a character win just three nights ago in Boston and take a firm grip on the series. But they didn’t.
Speaking of missed opportunities, the Leafs’ power play woes continued in game three, going 0/5 with only a few promising chances. It’s mind-boggling that a team with Toronto’s talent can’t figure out how to run a successful power play in the playoffs. The statistics speak for themselves: in 2021, the team’s PP scored at a 13% rate. In 2022, it was 14%, and in round 2 against Florida last year, the rate was 17%. Their success rate this year? 9% through three games. Interestingly, in the only series this franchise has won in the past 20 years, the team scored 33% of their power play opportunities. Funny how that works.
There was more to this game than special teams (though not a lot more), but the Blue and White power play lacks movement, puck movement, and any overall strategy of how to open up the Bruins’ aggressive penalty kill. They are clearly missing another shot threat and playmaking threat, both of which William Nylander is. However, Mitch Marner should be able to utilize the extra space available to him on the man advantage to create for his teammates. The fact that he isn’t is maybe the biggest worry regarding #16’s play at the moment. Tyler Bertuzzi, John Tavares and Morgan Rielly aren’t giving him much help in terms of spacing and passing ability, either.
One guy on this power play scored the most goals anyone has scored for thirty years, yet he finished tonight’s game with the least amount of shots of anyone on the top unit. Auston Matthews should be given carte blanche to fire when ready, yet it feels like they’re using him as a decoy. The one chance he did get was stifled by a superb Swayman save.
Power plays sometimes feel like rocket science, but they’re really not. I’m not exactly sure what assistant coach Guy Boucher does (Supposedly in charge of the power play); whatever it is, it’s not working.
Overall, last night was a solid playoff performance from Toronto. It was a tight-checking game that didn’t open up much until late in the second period. Ilya Samsonov wasn’t forced to make very many challenging saves, with Boston generating just 1.6 xG at five-on-five. The Leafs weren’t much better in testing Swayman, totalling only five high-danger chances. Of all the games Nylander has missed so far, they felt his absence the most last night. #88’s ability to break through a trap in the neutral zone and gain entry with control is unmatched on this roster, and it was a real struggle for Toronto to do anything but dump the puck in at the blue line.
An outlier to this was the first goal of the game. It was an excellent example of puck protection and patience by John Tavares, combined with great awareness from Joel Edmundson to jump up in the play. That created a rare odd-man rush against this disciplined Boston team, which Marner took advantage of. It would be wise for the Leafs to instruct their defensemen to jump up as much as possible because Toronto needs to create more mismatches. Even with their lack of skill, an extra body makes it that much harder for the Bruins.
Intelligent movement by Matthew Knies to sneak into the back post and a brilliant pass by Marner to give his teammate a chance. It was a rare spark of magic from Marner, who again struggled throughout the game with moving his feet and careless turnovers. It was a rather odd performance from Marner, who seemed to be sparked by the goal and had a few energetic shifts to end the second period, one of which almost ended up with a goal. However, the third period was more of what we saw in games one and two.
The Bruins equalizer at the end of the second period was almost overshadowed by the chaos that came before.
A hip drop tackle by Charlie McAvoy on Matthews went uncalled despite the ref standing mere feet away, and a minute later, Bertuzzi and Brad Marchand had a wrestling match which resembled an amateur backyard wrestling fight rather than a hockey battle. Amidst all this, Trent Frederic came into the zone untouched and beat Samsonov from the top of the circle with a short-side wrist shot.
It was a horrific goal to give up and reminiscent of the goals Samsonov gave up in the early parts of the season. It’s also the type of goal that Swayman would never give up.
The Bruins took the lead early in the third with another goal from Samsonov, which was not much better. Three Leafs penalty killers got stuck on the half wall, which left space for Marchand to get a shot off. The puck went in and out of Sammy’s glove and fell kindly for Jake Debrusk. It’s a lousy rebound and one you can’t have at that moment in the game, especially with how well Swayman is playing.
Just seconds after the Leafs tied the game late in the third, Max Domi had a chance to take the lead off a giveaway, but the puck just rolled off his stick. Moments later, a play that is a microcosm of Toronto’s issues so far on their own end.
The puck has to be moved by Timothy Liljegren here, who struggled again last night with the game’s speed. It’s an easy play; he doesn’t make it, and things fall apart. Edmundson also has a chance to get the puck up the boards but fails to do so. From there, Domi doesn’t recognize Marchand, who is wide open in the slot, which leads to the game-winning goal.
The Buds’ inability to break out under pressure is destroying their build-up play, and loose passes are happening far too often. They made a concentrated effort to push the wingers high to create some space for their d-men, and it worked at times, but it’s still a problem overall. I don’t know how you run back the same three pairings if you’re Keefe for game four. T.J. Brodie has flaws, but his key strength is puck-moving, and it would help so much to have him in the lineup.
The play of Jeremy Swayman is also starting to become a real worry. I got multiple flashbacks of Joonas Korpisalo and Carey Price from previous Leaf playoffs watching Swayman, and there’s this mystique building around him. He’s so good at taking away the lower half of the net and Toronto isn’t elevating the puck well enough in tight to get around that. If you’re a religious Leaf fan, I hope you’re praying that Jim Montgomery puts Linus Ullmark back in for game four.
The two days off will feel like an eternity for Leaf fans, and the frustration may only build. The good thing is that Toronto’s path to victory seems pretty straightforward. They need to be better at special teams and their goalie to make a few more saves. If they can’t improve at those two aspects, the team doesn’t deserve to advance anyway.
Game 4 is Saturday. They have to win a home game at some point… right?
The Morning Skate 