Since Auston Matthews played his first game in the NHL nine years ago, one thing that was never an issue for the Toronto Maple Leafs was scoring goals. Toronto has only been outside the top five in goals for at five on five once over those nine years. That was in 2022/23, they finished 8th. Sheldon Keefe’s Leaf teams were dynamic, fast and excellent in transition. The offence dried up too often come playoff time, but they were a juggernaut during the regular season.
This season tells a different story. The Leafs are 18th in goals at five on five, and what may be more worrying is the team’s expected goals. They’re 19th in that category and 14th in high danger chances for, which shows that this is not just a case of the team getting unlucky. This is an average hockey team offensively, and when you’re spending as much as the Leafs are on their forwards, that’s kind of a problem. Toronto’s power play could and should be a difference maker, but that has been an outright disaster since the start of the season, and it doesn’t look like it’s getting better anytime soon.
Now, you may be thinking that this lack of offensive firepower compared to years past is because Toronto has undertaken a shift in identity with new coach Craig Berube stressing the need for defensive stability over offensive dynamism. This notion is backed by the Leafs offseason acquisitions where general manager Brad Treliving signed three defenseman, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Chris Tanev and Jani Hakanpää. But is the team actually better defensively? The above the line defensive numbers would indicate yes, (the team is 6th in goals against at five on five) and Chris Tanev has made a massive difference on the backend.
However, the underlying numbers suggest that Toronto’s defence is almost as average as their offence. Toronto are 15th in both expected goals against and high danger chances against at five on five. I understand that this is Berube’s first season, and it takes time to implement a new system, but this team has not shown many signs of a defensive identity. Unless you consider having great goaltending a defensive identity, because that’s the reason Toronto is 6th in goals against, and comfortably in the playoffs.
Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll have played a combined 44 games this year, and have a .918% over though those games. That would rank second in the league for team save percentage. Quality goaltending covers up for so much in the NHL and Toronto is a prime example. The rest of the team should be thanking Stolarz and Woll every day because if the two of them were even slightly better than average this season, the Leafs would find themselves, at best, in a wildcard spot. They’re not playing well because the defensive structure has been good. The defensive structure has been “good” because Woll and Stolarz are playing well.
I bring up the Leafs defensive performance because if the team was near the top of the league in shutting down the oppositions offensive impact, it would be more than understandable that their offensive output be around average to compensate for that. But it’s just not the case, and at some point Berube has to understand that this roster as currently constructed is not built to play defensively minded low event hockey.
Much of the Leafs general ordinariness at five on five has gone under the radar because the team was in large part winning hockey games, and sitting in 1st in their division. They haven’t been winning very many hockey games of late, just 3 of their last 9 in fact, and a lack of goals is the main culprit for that. So how does Toronto go about fixing those scoring issues?
Firstly, internal improvement will be key. Injuries have killed the Leafs this season. Auston Matthews has been fully healthy for maybe a dozen games this season, Calle Jarnkrok hasn’t played this year, John Tavares and Bobby McMann have missed time, and the bottom six has been a revolving door of guys on two way contracts.
Some players also have been flat out bad. Max Domi was given a four year contract in the summer and has scored 3 goals this season while being a net negative in 90% of games.
Morgan Rielly, often counted on in the past to give the forwards some help from the backend, has been one of the team’s worst players this season, and no other defenseman has been able to step up in his place. They need both Rielly and Domi to figure it out, or the potential Toronto has goes way down.
Secondly, they need to trade for some actual offensive firepower. Names like Yanni Gourde, Scott Laughton and Trent Frederic have been brought up as guys that can fill the gaping hole in the third line centre position, but none of those names score goals in any significant way. That isn’t to say they wouldn’t help the Leafs, but they can’t be the teams only forward acquisition.
Treliving is going to have to get creative. He saved his bullets at the deadline last season, and now is his chance to fire off some shots. With Mitch Marner and Tavares in the final year of their contracts, you have to go for it. The first name I would like to see Treliving push hard for is Brock Nelson.
Nelson would slot in perfectly as the 3C or even in the top six. He has scored 34 goals or more in three straight seasons, and is defensively responsible. Nelson would fill a similar role that Ryan O’Reilly filled in 2023, and has the same versatility as ROR. He can play with skill players, drive a third line, kill penalties and give the power play a boost. The Leafs might get outbid by other suitors, but if they don’t push as hard as possible for Nelson, it will be a massive failure.
The next best option after Nelson for Toronto is Brock Boeser. Yes, the Leafs already have two incredible right wingers in their lineup, but that doesn’t mean Boeser isn’t a fit. Whether it’s on the third line with another newly acquired third line centre, or William Nylander moves to left wing (which he’s done in the past) to accommodate Boeser in the top six, the Leafs have options. Boeser scored 40 goals last year, and added 7 in the playoffs. Boeser doesn’t excel at driving play, or match up with opposition’s best players, but he scores goals, and he gets to the net, the Buds need more guys like that.
Lastly, let’s talk about the dream but probably an unrealistic option in Dylan Cozens. If there is one thing Buffalo loves to do, it is trade players with obvious talent at their lowest possible value. Cozens fits that bill! In the midst of his worst season since his rookie year, Cozens work ethic has been questioned by Sabres fans, and his name is consistently tossed out in trade rumours despite the fact he signed a 7 year deal two years ago.
Clearly Cozens has the potential to be a gamebreaker in the NHL, his 31 goal, 68 point season at the age of 21 shows that, but he has struggled a bit since then and Buffalo seemingly feels that it’s time for a change of scenery. Cozens makes $7 million annually, but he’s 23, can play anywhere in the lineup and would be a fantastic replacement for Tavares if he leaves in the summer. The Whitehorse native is a strong skater, has a high hockey IQ, and plays a mature game for his age. His AAV means Treliving would have to get clever to make the money work, however the Leafs have guys they can use to match money (ahem… Max Domi). Again, longshot at best, but Cozens would be a guy that Treliving should overpay for.
The final factor that will help the Blue and White score more goals is Craig Berube. Toronto’s head coach has to be able to adapt to the roster at his disposal. This roster could not be more different than the one Berube had in St. Louis, and he needs to put his skilled offensive players in better positions to succeed. I do not think that Toronto should be getting into track meets with other teams, but I firmly believe that puck possession is a skill of this roster, and they have been too willing to give up the puck this season.
Toronto’s offensive zone time is down this season, as are their rush chances, but their dump in percentage is up. The Leafs forecheck was at its best when defences were scared of getting beat off the rush, but now Toronto is so committed to dumping the puck in that they’ve become one dimensional. There’s a way to be both high flying in transition and heavy in the forecheck, and Berube has to find a way to create a balanced offence.
The reality is that even with how much the Leafs have invested in their core four forwards, they still need help come playoff time. Scoring goals in the playoffs is a team effort, and you need to have three lines that can create scoring chances consistently. Right now, Toronto has one.
The East is pretty wide open, and Toronto has to think that with who they have in net, they can make a run. Treliving signed Tanev and OEL, now he has to dig into the forward market and be ruthless in doing so. Fraser Minten and Easton Cowan are not off limits anymore, this is the time to strike. Let’s just hope the trade deadline acquisition(s) this year is a little more exciting than Connor Dewar.
The Morning Skate 