Over the last month, the Toronto Maple Leafs have been playing hockey that can generously be described as uninspired. The team’s record is sparkling, 8-2-1 in 11 games since February 1st, but looking beyond that is where things start to get ugly. In that same timeframe, the Leafs have been one of the worst teams in the league at five on five. Toronto ranks above ONLY the Chicago Blackhawks in expected goals share over those 11 games, and if you think that’s too small a sample, fair enough. Add in the month of January, and Toronto improves… to 26th best xGF% in the league since the new year.
Toronto has managed to keep winning, especially in February, thanks to more fantastic goaltending and their special teams performing the best it has all season (most PP goals in the NHL this month). But, continuing along this path was not going to go well, and the Leafs last three games, a roller coaster win over Pittsburgh and losses against San Jose and Vegas, proved that Toronto needed to be aggressive at the trade deadline if they were serious about contending for a cup this season.
Aggressive they were, and after all the dust settled, the Leafs have made attempts to fill two big holes in their bottom six and on defence. The first trade Brad Treliving made was acquiring local guy, Scott Laughton with 50% of his contract being retained from the Flyers for a 2027 first rounder and Nikita Grebenkin, who played 7 games for Toronto earlier this year.
Laughton immediately slots into the Leafs third line centre spot, and most of his strengths are hard to capture through numbers. He’s a tough guy, who skates pretty well and tends to be the first player on the forecheck. It was clear that Max Domi was not a solution as a centre, and Laughton should be a much more responsible player defensively, although that’s not saying a lot. Craig Berube is hoping that a combination of Bobby McMann and Laughton on the third line will create havoc for opposing defenders on chip and chases, and it should be a line that he can feel confident having on the ice.
Despite this, I still come away a tad underwhelmed with the trade. Laughton makes Toronto better, no doubt. But he doesn’t drive play, he’s not very creative and he doesn’t score goals very often (Scored 11 times this year). It’s clear that the Leafs are going after certain types of players who are physical and theoretically tough to play against, Laughton fits that mould, but Toronto will need their third line to pitch in a few goals too.
The price is what it is, I don’t care about trading away a first round pick, but I do think it’s rarely good value to trade one for a player who plays in the bottom six. Yes, it’s nice that he still has a year left on his contract at a very fair price, but Toronto needs players who can make a difference offensively, and Laughton hasn’t been that this year. When I take a look at the price for Laughton compared to Brock Nelson, a player who has scored 30+ in his last 3 seasons, I wonder if the Leafs made the right choice. Overall, I give this trade a C+.
The second move the Leafs made was a bit of a shocker, and certainly more creative than the Laughton trade as they acquired Brandon Carlo from the Boston Bruins. Carlo, 28, is a big right hand shot defenseman that is an instant upgrade for the Leafs defence. The full details of the trade haven’t been confirmed, but it seems that Fraser Minten, and a first round pick are headed to Boston, with Connor Dewar and Connor Timmins also being shipped out. It’s a very high price, but Carlo has two years left on his deal at $4.1 million annually, and that’s the cost of trading with a division rival.
A decent skater, Carlo could be given the task of helping Morgan Rielly find his game, something that is imperative to Toronto’s playoff chances this season. Carlo isn’t going to wow anybody with his ability to move the puck, but defensively he is quite stout. His pairing with Parker Wotherspoon was 23rd of 171 defense pairings in expected goals against at five on five, and here are some more stats that indicate his strength defensively.
The one thing giving me pause about this trade being a home run for Toronto is the fact that Carlo doesn’t have much offensive upside, and his puck skills are limited. The Buds defensive unit struggled with breakouts and quick transition passes mightily last April, and Carlo doesn’t help that. Part of the reason Toronto had such difficulty scoring against Boston last year was the fact they didn’t have good passers on their backend outside Jake McCabe and Rielly.
Yes, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Chris Tanev were brought in last summer to address that, and they will continue to make a difference, but Berube has to be smart about how he deploys Carlo. He cannot be asked to do too much. It’s not a home run, but it’s a LOUD double at the very least, and I am impressed that Treliving was able to get it done. Minten’s ceiling was always limited, and late first round picks will matter less and less given the new salary cap climate. B+ grade for me on this deal.
Taking a look at the bigger picture, it’s clear that if the Leafs wanted to even have a chance at the Stanley Cup, they had to be aggressive, and they were. The Atlantic is as tough as it gets and winning the division will be so important. Florida made some impressive moves that make them the favorite in the East, and Tampa Bay’s additions of Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde were much needed for them.
It wasn’t a perfect deadline,but Laughton and Carlo will help the team turnaround this recent run of bad form at the very least. Is it a good enough team to win the Stanley Cup? It’s tough to say. The Leafs have incredible goaltending, and that goes a long way come the playoffs. Their defensive structure should be tough to break down in the spring, also very important. They are tougher to play against now than they were yesterday, and their foot speed has been upped as well.
But I still wonder if Toronto will score consistently when the game tightens up and that was something they didn’t improve today. Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner need to be the ones scoring, yes, but they need help too. Toronto has struggled to create offence all year, and it won’t become easier to score during the playoffs.It’s easy to blame the Leafs best players when the goals dry up in the biggest moments, but if it happens again this year, we shouldn’t forget that Toronto ignored a major weakness at the deadline.
Overall, I’ll give Toronto a B grade for this trade deadline. The Leafs improved their chances at the Stanley Cup, but it’s hard to say that their division rivals didn’t make bigger moves for more impactful players.
The Morning Skate 