Welcome to Calgary, Alberta. The gateway to the Rocky Mountains, the home of The Greatest Outdoor Show on Earth, and the place where hopes and dreams stay alive way too long, and crash way too hard.
In a picturesque land that has never had a first overall pick, but also hasn’t won a cup in my lifetime, we don’t quit on our squad. I’ll be damned if I say that’s not a cool vibe late in an almost lost season; but clinging to hope is way better than being a Buffalo fan (stray, I’m sorry, you don’t deserve that).
To start the year, the Flames once again told us “to hell with a rebuild, we’re gonna grind out scrappy Ws and see what we can do”. Hot start, cooled off, danced around the playoff picture cutoff the entire season. We went into the Trade Deadline wondering if we should buy or sell, and somehow stayed the course, on a high-speed rocketship to the middle once more.
Now that all sounds pretty doom and gloom, but honestly it’s been a wild season to see unfold from up close. Tied to a first round pick that we lose if we’re too good, but on the outside looking into the playoffs because we’re not good enough. The Calgary Flames sit as the (as of right this second) 29th ranked scoring team, with a bottom-ten penalty kill, with one skater over 60 points through game 77. Despite this, they have leaned on tremendous goaltending from Calder Trophy Candidate Dustin Wolf and the spirit of an underdog to grind their way into a spot where, with the right bounces, they can sneak into the postseason. Historically, teams THIS bad at finding the back of the net usually find themselves discussing draft lottery status and bringing in young guns to get some NHL looks way earlier than this point in the season. But despite having a -24.02 GF vs. Expected, this incredible rookie season from Wolf also sees a -24.6 GA vs. Expected. Simplified, they stink at scoring but Wolf is gnarly at keeping pucks out of the net.
It’s been clear from the start that if this squad was going to be successful, they were going to have to be absolute DAWGS to do it, because on paper we weren’t destined to be. They took the underdog mentality, they ran with it. As a fan of a squad with middling, rebuild adjacent expectations, there’s nothing more you can ask for.
Now, let’s get into the meat and potatoes here. How can we do it? How do the Calgary Flames make the unimaginable happen and secure Dustin Wolf the true claim to the Calder Trophy? Thankfully, I have a graph. Ryan Pike flaunted his Microsoft Excel proficiency to give us the most realistic pathway into the postseason, overtaking the Wild if they give us the chance to.
Green means the Wild get in, red, the Flames. It’s important to note that we have secured one of the required Ws to keep that little chunk of red Excel squares alive and well, as this was posted prior to the Flames win over San Jose on Monday. The worse the Wild do and the better we do, (along with a head-to-head win over Minnesota, because that 4-point swing will likely be the difference one way or the other) the better our chances get each day that passes. Now this is the simpler, more logical version, but I wouldn’t be a Flames fan if I didn’t immediately pivot away from what is realistic, and share with you all the pathway that we truly need.
That pathway is, of course, how can the Hockey Gods make it so that Calgary is in, and Edmonton is out? Once more, people smarter than me have sorted it out, and I must share with you their glad tidings and hard work. Check this out.
While the internet has been split in two between “It’s not worth it, bring in the future studs and let them get a taste of NHL action” and “Leave those kids parked in the press box until there’s a little ‘e’ beside our name in the standings”, the passion in the C of Red right now is undeniable. To those of you who have come to terms with the difficulty of the road ahead, I get it, Zayne Parekh just had an incredible season that saw his name climb up a list over Bobby Orr’s name, we get King Costco back next year, our Bill Masterson Trophy nominee, and Dustin Wolf with a full season under his belt can only get even better with experience and time. However I’d like to offer you the following visual.
Picture it now, mid-May, the 4th Alberta Winter has finally come to an end, the sun is bright and beaming down on 17th Avenue. The patio at National is packed to the gills, the Ship and Anchor is buzzin’ like a beehive, there’s an army of Flames jerseys and incredible vibes flooding your every sense. Cold pints, hot wings, the crisp breeze down The Red Mile as the Flames defy the odds one more time.
Would you rather demand us shut it down, let the kids play, and roll over and die, watching our first rounder fall limply into the waiting hands of the Montreal Canadiens? Or would you rather the lads stare fate in the face one more goddamn time and give us that beautiful gift?
Whatever happens, we should never have even been having this little chat. If Wolf didn’t consistently outperform our team’s expectations, we wouldn’t be. But we are, and it’s fuckin’ magnificent. Flames Forever, and here we go.
The Morning Skate 