Hey everybody I’m back with a look at how accurate the ‘insiders’ are at predicting future trades. I’m not talking about 10 minutes prior to the time it happens but at least a few hours to a day or two ahead of time. I don’t care that the insider have connections with the person that ‘s put through the ‘paperwork’ to get that 10 minute head start on the announcement. I want to know that they have connections to the real decision makers in the boardroom. That when they call GMs, they get decent INSIDE information beforehand.
Also just a warning that although I usually try to keep my pieces short, to the point and give them good flow, this one will be much longer, a little bit all over the place and quite a bit choppier. Just like that last sentence! 🙂
Now back to the insiders. As you will see, their strength isn’t predicting trades but rather explaining details after the fact. Here you can see that Bobby Mac has done a great job with this multi-tweet explanation of the super complex Brassard deal.
Now, every reference I make from this point forward has to do with the ‘insiders’ and their ability to tell their audience of upcoming trades. Not contracts, not upcoming wedding plans, not how great the guys are, nothing else.
Not how they tell each other that they ask great questions or pat themselves on the back because they keep telling anyone who will listen that they are the best at what they do. 🙂
Another point I will make is, at least after pursuing what I’ve done here, I’ll give them this. They USUALLY don’t make shit up. Well, I don’t believe Pierre, Bob, Elliotte or Dregs do anyway.
Anywho, the ‘insiders’ that I tracked are Bob McKenzie, Darren Dreger, Pierre Lebrun, Elliotte Friedman, and Eklund. Oh and by the way, just cut the crap and grow a pair. Tell people your real name. (I believe it’s either Dwayne Klessel or Dwayne Keith?
You’ll see in the picture, there are a couple of other insiders I didn’t track. One because he trolls fan bases, another because he’s still pretty young in the game and a third because he doesn’t give out a whole lot of info to begin with. You can probably figure out who is who.
As a sidebar, for this piece I wanted to make sure I included Eklund when it came to Leafs trades. A lot of people on Twitter consider him the low bar of ‘insiders’, so I wanted to see how different he REALLY IS than the rest. Having said that, I can’t keep track of all of Eklund’s info because there’s too much ‘noodle throwing at the wall’ kind of stuff. So I stuck to Leafs rumours only.
What I do want to start with is some sort of disclaimer:
There may be some minor deals that I have missed. I can’t keep track of every single freaking transaction like I’m a professional reporter. And no, there was no cherry picking of the deals I show here. I do check out TSN and Sportsnet on a fairly regular basis and I spend wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too much time on Twitter, so I should see the information. I also did searches on Twitter to see if any of these people warned anyone about an upcoming trade. Unfortunately I can’t check every radio hit, etc. That would just be insane!
All those things being said, here are the transactions that have happened since August 1st and the ‘insiders’ that provided insight or advance warning of the trade itself. Or lack of it in most cases.
Anyway there’s so much info to deal with here, I’m just going point form.
Aug 7- Eklund – JVR to Rangers, Columbus, FLA (throw pasta at the wall?)
Aug 11 -Eklund – JVR to Jets
Sept 17 – Trade: Demers for McGinn.
Friedman tweeted ahead of time, nobody else had a clue.
Oct 3 -Pouliot to Canucks for Pedan and a 4th NOBODY was ahead of it.
Oct 6 – Leafs get Pickard. NOBODY was a head of it.
Oct 20 – Dreger – NYR to get Duchene.
Oct 21 – Shehan for Sproul
Oct 21 – Wilson for Pumpel – There was nothing except a couple of minutes before it happened (from McKenzie)
Oct 28 – Scott Wedgewood for a 5th NOBODY was a head of it.
Nov 5 -Duchene trade. All of the insiders kind of knew the rough details ahead of time, so I’m giving them all this one.
Nov 10 – Eklund – Bozak to CBJ or NYR
Nov 14 – Eklund – Bozak to Hurricanes (see a pattern here?)
Nov 15 – Cammarelli for Jokinen. NOBODY was ahead of it.
Nov 28 -Eklund – Gudbranson to the Leafs
Nov 30 – Vatanen for Henrique. NOBODY HAD ANYTHING ON A BIG TRADE LIKE THIS!!!
Then nothing really happens for about two and a half months. Thanks Gary for jamming up GMs with a hard cap system that limits trade possibilities.
Feb 15th – Sochnikov for a 4th AND Pokka for DiDominico. NOBODY was ahead of either of these deals.
Feb 19th – Mrazek to Philly. We have a winner here kids. Dreger was on it 10 hours ahead of time.
Feb 20 – Holden trade. Nobody was ahead of this.
Eric Fehr trade – There was some warning from Pierre Lebrun a few minutes ahead of time but that’s it.
Feb 21 -TSN’s Insider Trading – McKenzie – Preds looking at Tatar, also Pens looking at Plekanec.
Pierre specifically – Nash could go to Columbus, Nashville, Dallas, Winnipeg or Boston. Sound like Pierre was cooking pasta that night and throwing some noodles on the wall!
Also Pierre – Pens looking at Brassard and Plekanec. So much pasta being thrown around in that episode! Was Eklund producing this? At least he got one right.
Feb 21 – Jerabek to Washington for a 5th. NOBODY was ahead of this.
Feb 21 -Kuemper for Reider – Nobody was ahead of this.
Feb 22 -Vatrano to FLA – Nobody was ahead of this.
Feb 22 – Grabner to Devils. Lebrun knew he was moving but didn’t know where. not good enough.
Feb22 – Lebrun speculates McD to Leafs/Bolts/Bruins
Feb 23 – I listened to the Trade deadline Bobcast, it was good, but full of generalities. they should do more of those with spit balling and hot takes. They really should stop caring about Twitter mentions or being ‘radioed’ as they call it. You’re getting paid very handsomely, just take it and move on.
Feb 23 – Pens get Brassard. Lebrun called this one. Yay, we have a winner!!!
Feb 24 – Davidson to the Islanders. Nobody was ahead of this.
Feb 24 – Friedman predicts Bruins for Nash and Vanek to Anaheim.
Feb 25 – Nash to Bruins. -Friedman got this one. Bob did too but it was so close to the actual deal, not giving it to him.
Plekanec to Leafs. Friedman got this one.
Letestu to CBJ. Nobody was ahead of this one.
Feb 26 – Cole to CBJ. Nobody was ahead of this.
Hartman to Nashville – Nobody was ahead of this.
Paul Stastny to Jets. Nobody was ahead of this.
CBJ acquires Kujawinski for Maletta (minor deal obviously) . Nobody ahead of this.
Isles trade Wagner for Chimera. Nobody ahead of this.
Evander Kane to SJS . Nobody was ahead of this.
Vanek to CBJ. Nobody was ahead of this.
McDonagh – I’ll give everyone this one. Even Eklund.
Mike Reilly to Habs. Nobody ahead of it.
Sens trade Nick Shore to Flames. Nobody ahead of it.
Jets get Joe Morrow. Nobody ahead of it.
Tatar to Vegas. Nobody ahead of this one.
Maroon to the Devils. Nobody ahead of this.
Here is a list of tweets that I put out during the year concerning concerning this piece.
Here is my tweet about what I have noticed regarding the cycle of promised activity. I get that GMs are jammed up or that they lack the creativity to make trades under a hard cap (Poile,Rutherford and others being exceptions).
The media people that call themselves insiders really need to revisit the name. Sure they have inside info about contract signings, or what GMs MAY BE THINKING, but 90% of fans don’t care about that crap. And another thing, NOBODY GIVES A SHIT ABOUT ESCROW MAN! They want to know about player movement, even though there is very little of it, especially around the deadline.
I can’t remember which trade it was for sure, (probably Vatanen/Henrique) but the worst response I’ve heard from an insider not giving advanced info came from Dreger. Paraphrasing – We knew they had been having talks for a while now but felt we shouldn’t release the information. – Yeah right, like you’re turning down a shot at getting hits on TSN.ca Give me a break dude!
If teams aren’t letting that information leak, then they need to own that and stop all the bullshit. And I don’t want to hear this garbage about there’s a lot of stuff going on behind the scenes but a lot of it didn’t happen!!!! That’s a cop out.
OK, I got that out of my system. (breathes into a paper bag)
I’m not getting into nor am I keeping score of all the false predictions. You can see for yourself and see who are the worst offenders.
If this doesn’t show you how little they are connected on upcoming trades, I don’t know what to tell you other than you’re going to believe what you want to believe. You can either see the truth or live the myth and believe your illusion of how connected these reporters are.
I’m not saying the ‘insiders’ are bad at their jobs, my objective in all this is point out that they aren’t very tuned into trades that are going down. To use a term like ‘insiders’ implies that you are more connected to decision makers than your typical reporter.
I think it would really help if they weren’t afraid to get ‘radioed’. Maybe fire off some hot takes once in a while and not be afraid to have a lot of idiots go after them on Twitter (just don’t read your mentions). It’s entertainment after all, not Woodward and Burnstein stuff here.
I hope you enjoyed reading this. I haven’t seen anyone else attempt something like this before, so that’s why I thought I would give it a shot. Having said all that, I have enjoyed tracking this info. I see so much blind faith put in these guys that I thought someone should question them in some kind of blog like this. And no, I’m not some blogger that lives in my mother’s basement. I actually own my own house, have kids and have bills to pay like everyone else in the world.
Feel free to disagree with me after you’ve followed and documented all their activity for 7 months so you can compare notes. Calling them insiders when it comes to trades is a stretch. They should try a cooler term like The Outsiders!
I don’t pretend to be a professional writer. I’m just here to get out my frustrations! As you can tell, I have a lot of frustration!!!
Have a good one.
Cousin Eddie #GoLeafsGo