Finally, we’ve made it, Leaf fans. Playoffs. After another regular season that feels like it could’ve just been simulated on NHL 24, Toronto finished with over 100 points and comfortably in a playoff spot. The Blue and White looked less than convincing for large stretches throughout the season, but career-best years from Auston Matthews and William Nylander got the team where they needed to be. Now, the big question is the same as it has been for the last seven seasons: which Leaf team will show up when it matters most? I’ll summarize the series’ broader contexts, break down the most important matchups, and give a final prediction.
Toronto’s opponent in this first round is familiar: the Boston Bruins. It wasn’t a record-breaking season for Boston like last year, but given who the team lost in the offseason, it might have been just as impressive. Backed by arguably the best goalie tandem in the league in Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark, the Bruins grinded their way through the season. They compensated for their lack of offensive depth with a tight defensive structure, allowing the third-fewest number of goals in the league.
Zooming out, the Leafs and Bruins present a fascinating contrast of strengths and weaknesses. Toronto has a clear offensive advantage at even strength. The Buds were among the best offensive teams in the NHL this year, scoring the most goals out of anyone at five-on-five, while Boston was 12th in that department. Shockingly, the Bruins were ranked 20th in expected goals and even lower than that in the scoring chances statistic. This team has to work extremely hard for every goal they score, and when David Pastrnak is not on the ice, there just isn’t much for the opposing team to worry about. Pastrnak is the obvious straw that stirs the drink, and he had a fabulous year, totalling 47 goals and 63 assists for 110 points.
The Bruins control 62.5% of the expected goals when he is on the ice and just 42.8% when he’s not—that 19.7% disparity places Pasta 11th in the NHL in relative xG%. The Leafs cannot plan to stop Pastrnak; it’s unrealistic, but they should be able to control play when his line is not out there.
Going further down the Bruins lineup is when it starts to get bleak. Second on the team in points was Brad Marchand, who showed the first signs that his 35-year-old body was beginning to catch up to him. Marchand had just 67 points in 82 games this season, translating to his lowest points per game rate since 2015-16. This Boston team is a far cry from the ones that won back-to-back playoff series against the Leafs in 2018 and 2019. Those iterations were formidable down the middle with Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. Now, it seems to be the consensus that Boston’s biggest weakness is its centres. Pavel Zacha, Charlie Coyle, and Morgan Geekie centre the team’s top three lines, and between them, they have just one 60-point season in their careers (Coyle had 60 points this year).
Wingers Jake Debrusk and Danton Heinen are tasked with a large share of the responsibility to score goals, but they have yet to impress, as neither managed to crack 20 goals this season. Despite its lack of offensive talent, Boston has one of the highest shooting percentages in the NHL. I expect that to regress as things get much tighter in the playoffs, where good chances are few and far between. That doesn’t mean the Bruins cannot score enough to win. Marchand could quickly turn back into his old self, and Pasta is good enough to carry the offence alone. But if the Bruins are to win this series, it won’t be by getting into offensive track meets with Toronto.
On Toronto’s side, Sheldon Keefe must be salivating over the forward matchups he can send out there. Toronto’s newly formed first line of Matthews, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Max Domi has been nothing short of phenomenal. In 17 games together, the line has a staggering 65.8% xG%, and Domi’s pass-first mentality has fit like a glove with the league’s best goalscorer in Matthews. There’s not much more to say about Matthews that hasn’t already been said, but all of it is deserved. The now three-time Rocket Richard Winner scored five goals in seven games the last time these two teams met in the playoffs, and Toronto is expecting him to, at the very least, match that total this time around. Matthews is the best player in this series, and the Bruins lack any proper shutdown centre to match up with him.
The emergence of that first line has allowed Keefe to balance out the rest of his lines more evenly. Mitch Marner and William Nylander are now responsible for driving their own lines and, in a matchup with the top-heavy Bruins, that could pay significant dividends for Toronto. It is in the middle six where the gap in offensive talent between these two teams is most apparent, and being able to potentially put a Nylander or Marner line against the Bruins third line could be a game-changer for Toronto.
Interestingly, the Leafs’ scoring has dried up when they needed it most in the playoffs over the last few years. The measly ten goals scored in five games against Florida in round two last season is perhaps the most poignant example. However, there are significant changes to last year’s roster. Gone are the defensively responsible but offensively inept Alex Kerfoot and Noel Accairi, and in their place are guys like Bobby McMann and Matthew Knies, who now have an entire season of experience. Both scored 15 goals this year and have the finishing ability necessary to be meaningful contributors. Matthews, Marner and Nylander drive the bus for this team, but they cannot be left to do it alone. Knies and McMann will help mightily with that.
The last player I want to spotlight is John Tavares, who quietly finished the season with 29 goals and 65 points. Still, from an eye-test perspective, it was not a good year for JT. He looked old and slow and seemingly lost the knack for goals that made him so deadly over his career. Nonetheless, this matchup sets up perfectly for Tavares to put his stamp all over this series. The Bruins are a slow team, which means that JT can play at a pace with which he is comfortable. Also, Tavares won’t have to deal with transporting the puck up and down the ice as Marner will be on his wing. If the Leafs captain is at a level anywhere close to where he once was, the Leafs’ offence will be almost impossible to stop.
As we transition to analyzing the defence and goaltending aspects of this series, it becomes clear how the Bruins won 47 games this season. Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm are the two best defensemen on either team in this series, and as a pairing, they were one of the strongest in the NHL. However, Boston may separate their two studs to ensure that one is always on the ice with Matthews. Matt Grzelcyk and Brandon Carlo round out the top four for the Bruins. Grzelcyk has struggled defensively this season and is certainly someone the Leafs will look to single out on zone entries and when activating their forecheck. Carlo hasn’t lived up to lofty expectations after a solid start to his career, but the defensive defenseman carries a large frame at 6’5 and doesn’t make boneheaded mistakes with the puck in his end. His lack of foot speed is something that Toronto will look to exploit.
In goal is where the Black and Yellow really shine. Coming off his Vezina-winning season a year ago, Linus Ullmark has understandably dropped off a bit, but he’s still one of the league’s premier goalies. His .915 save percentage is well above the league average, and he ranks 7th in goals saved above expected, a stat that tracks the difference between a goalie’s actual goals allowed and the total expected goals he’s faced. His partner in crime, Jeremy Swayman, actually ranks 4th in that statistic and is arguably having a better year than Ullmark. The Bruins have the third-best team save percentage in the NHL and have figured out how to run with a tandem in net better than anyone in league history.
If you were to rank the goalies in this series one through four, Swayman and Ullmark would be one and two. The problem is that only one goalie can be in net at a time, and Boston will have to decide, as they failed to do last year, how best to utilize their biggest strength. I’d be surprised if they ran with Ullmark or Swayman for every game, but it seems likely they’ll give one of their goalies the net until they lose. Either way, the Leafs will want to break up that rhythm as early and often as possible.
Toronto has too many defencemen to even count at this point, and it is still unclear who the best six are. Deadline acquisitions Joel Edmundson and Ilya Lybushkin haven’t blown anyone away and have missed just as many games as they’ve played. Still, it seems that both will start game one in the lineup. Neither will be counted on to drive offence, but if they can keep things simple on their own end and impose themselves physically, then they’ve done their job. It seems older players T.J. Brodie and Mark Giordano will be the odd ones out to start the series, and it has been a rough year for both. Jake McCabe and Morgan Rielly will play big, big minutes, and there will be few shifts where neither one is on the ice.
McCabe has had a fantastic year despite playing with seemingly a different partner every night and on both sides of the ice. His partnership with Timothy Liljegren has been the team’s best in a limited sample size, with an xG% of 61%. Keefe must put his faith in those two if the Leafs are to go far this spring. They are both capable puck movers and good skaters and play the type of style that will give Toronto the greatest success against Boston. McCabe showed signs of relishing a matchup with Brad Marchand in the offseason and I would not be surprised if Keefe tries to return to that throughout the series.
Playoff Morgan Rielly, it is your time, my friend. It has become a tradition for the longest-serving Leaf to elevate his play come April, and I look forward to it again. His performance against Tampa Bay last season should put to bed doubts that Rielly won’t be everything Toronto needs him to be when it matters most. He gives the Leafs’ offence a much-needed extra dimension when he joins the rush and plays as a fourth forward. It is up to whoever he plays with to fill in the gaps.
If any Leaf fan has told you they’re confident in whoever is between the pipes for game one, give them a lie detector test. When people say goalies are weird, they’re talking about Ilya Samsonov. The Russian started the season abhorrently, and it got to a point where it was tortuous for all involved to send him back out there. He finally hit rock bottom in December, with a .828 SV% through five games that month. The Leafs subsequently put Samsonov on waivers and sent him down to the AHL for a mental break. Since then, he’s improved a little. There have been some excellent performances and signs of the disaster that he was to begin the season. Samsonov has had a .905 SV% since returning to action for the Leafs in January.
The other option is Joseph Woll. Woll was fantastic to start the season and practically saved the Leafs’ year with his play throughout November. Before he suffered a high ankle sprain in December, Woll had a .917 SV%. However, since he came back in late February, the 25-year-old has been understandably inconsistent. A high ankle sprain is a brutal injury for a goalie to recover from, and Toronto is being very careful with Woll. But now is not the time to play it safe, and Woll showed enough flashes in the last few weeks of the season to at least make Sheldon Keefe think about who he should start in game one. I still think it’ll be Samsonov, as he was the number one goalie to start the season and bounced back admirably after his rough start, but his leash has to be short. Samsonov has the capability to torpedo the Leafs season very quickly, and Keefe must be ready to make the quick switch to Woll if there are signs of it falling apart.
Lastly, special teams. The Leafs penalty kill has been embarrassing to watch for almost the whole season, and I have so many bad memories of the Bruins tearing apart the Leafs’ PK in 2018 and 2019. I don’t know what the Buds game plan will be, but if it doesn’t start and end with getting the puck out of David Pastrnak’s plans as quickly as possible, it could be a long series for the penalty kill. The power play has to show up, too. It has never been as good in the playoffs for Toronto as it has been in the regular season, and that cannot be the case this season. You have four guys making $11 million. Figure it out. It is that simple.
I have to say that I am delighted the Leafs ended up playing Boston in the first round instead of Florida. Not only do I think Boston is a much better matchup for the Leafs, but it also means a little bit extra when playing an original six rival with which we have recent playoff history. Goaltending is always the most consequential factor in a playoff series, but when the disparity between the two goalies is as wide as it seems for this series, it only accentuates that fact.
I imagine Toronto will carry most of the play and dictate the tempo as best they can. One thing I’ll say about this iteration of the Leafs is that it feels like they have more guys willing to get to the front of the net. They have to penetrate the inner sanctum of Boston’s zone because if they allow themselves to be kept to the outside, they won’t score enough goals to win.
Boston will want to muddy it up, limit transition, make it as chippy and boring as possible. I don’t know if they have the skill and discipline to do that. Last year was the type of playoff loss that can really affect your psyche. Will they be gripping their sticks a little tighter? It certainly wouldn’t be surprising.
By now, I’d like to think that the Leafs’ core players understand what it takes to win the playoffs. They got the monkey off their back last season, winning a series, and now they can go and play free. Every metric in the book says Toronto is the better team, and I just don’t think Boston can slow down the number of elite forwards the Blue and White have.
Final Prediction: Leafs in 6. Go Leafs Go 🙂
The Morning Skate 