With the first round of the playoffs just two weeks away, the Toronto Maple Leafs still have a lot of question marks surrounding them. It’s more likely than not that the Leafs won’t know who they are playing against in round one until a few days before the playoffs begin, and the same can be said for who will be in the Leafs game one lineup. There have been plenty of injuries to players on the margins and rarely has there been a long stretch of games where the Leafs’ lines have been consistent. At this point, it seems that Toronto’s top six is locked in, but spots in the bottom half of the lineup are still up for grabs.
Since the trade deadline Toronto has made it a priority to test out different combinations in their bottom six as Scott Laughton has tried to find his feet in the Blue and White. Players like David Kampf, Pontus Holmberg, Nick Robertson and Calle Jarnkrok have rotated in and out with each player showcasing their strengths and weaknesses. As of right now, Robertson seems to be the odd man out, but his offensive upside always makes him an interesting option when the team is struggling to score, especially in the playoffs.
Realistically, Toronto has two players guaranteed to be in the game one lineup, Domi and Laughton. They have too much invested in both of those players to healthy scratch them for the biggest games of the season, and obviously I don’t think they should. Lorentz has also only missed one game this season, so let’s slot him in on the fourth line. That leaves three open spots for five players (if Max Pacioretty is healthy), Robertson, Holmberg, Pacioretty, Kampf and Jarnkrok.
Toronto’s recent third line of Domi centering and Jarnkrok makes a lot of sense on paper as it has offensive upside, enough speed to cause problems on the forecheck, and shouldn’t be a liability defensively. However in their short time (6 games) together they have been badly out shot (38-20) and have scored just once at five on five. Again, it is a small sample, but if Berube wants his third line to play low event, responsible hockey than Domi probably isn’t the best fit.
I don’t think they should give up on the line yet, but we have seen in the past that when Domi plays with lower end offensive players, he tends to try to do too much. Domi’s best asset, his passing, becomes sort of obsolete when playing with players that aren’t able to finish off his feeds. His turnovers increase and as does the amount of chances that both teams generate.
Also, if the Leafs traded a first round pick for Scott Laughton because they needed a third line centre then maybe they should play him at third line centre? Domi is a lot better suited to a winger role, and if they want to keep giving this line a go (which I think they should) then perhaps swapping the more offensive minded centre with the more responsible one will help.
Another variable that could impact the bottom six is the potential return of Max Pacioretty. Pacioretty has only played 37 games this season as injuries have prevented him from playing more than a few weeks at a time. Yet, whenever he’s healthy it feels like Craig Berube has inserted him into the lineup, and he clearly likes what Patches brings to the lineup. Whether it be his physicality, mature defensive play, nose for the net or a combination of all three factors, Berube wants it in his bottom six, and if he is able to play in round one, I’m certain we’ll see him in the lineup. The only question is where and with who?
If Berube has had enough of Domi and wants to change things up on the third line, then Pacioretty seems to be the obvious replacement. A Patches, Laughton and Jarnkrok line would not be relied upon to score very many goals, but they could be tasked with matching against an opposition’s top line and to create havoc on the forecheck leading to offensive zone faceoffs for Toronto’s top two lines.
The current fourth line of David Kampf in between Holmberg and Lorentz has been outshot 73-33 in their 13 games together so it doesn’t make too much sense for Berube to be married to that line. They certainly don’t have an identity, and it’s hard to see them pitching in with a goal at any point during the playoffs. I don’t see this line sticking together for much longer if they continue to be outplayed that badly. Toronto shouldn’t need their fourth line to contribute much offensively, but they can’t allow the other team to tilt the ice during their shifts.
If Toronto opted for a checking third line of Patches-Laughton-Jarnkrok, that could open up an opportunity for the fourth line to be a little more offensive minded. I’m not sure if Berube would ever consider this, but a line of Domi centering Roberton and Steven Lorentz intrigues me in the sense that their skill could create an advantage over any opposition’s fourth line.
If Berube can get Domi on board with playing fourth line minutes, then I think it’s worth trying to exploit a matchup with this line. This could become situational in the sense that when Toronto is chasing a game this line gets a more regular shift, and if they’re protecting a lead, the Laughton line goes over the boards more often. Admittedly the odds of this happening are quite low, but I just want to see some creativity!
My general ideology here is that Berube should not feel locked in to any line combination in their bottom six. No one has proved themselves beyond reasonable doubt, and flexibility is key. If the top six is not going to be subject to change, then you have to be willing to change the third and fourth line at a moment’s notice depending on what a certain game or series calls for.
If they’re not going to score, then the Leafs’ depth players need to find another way to impact the game. Do you go for the high upside of a guy like Robertson or the consistent floor of Jarnkrok? The speed of Pontus Holmberg or the physicality of Max Pacioretty. How much do you value David Kampf’s ability to kill penalties and win faceoffs?
Berube will need to weigh all of these questions, and yes, you can swap players in and out of the lineup game by game, but consistent playing time is often the ideal way to get the best out of players.
It’s imperative that the Leafs get some sort of output from their bottom six come playoff time because you won’t win the Stanley Cup without it.
The Morning Skate 